October 24, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
CORN: As of 7:45 – down 1
Yesterday’s trade tested contract lows early in the morning session, but rallied through the rest of the day. We were able to close yesterday by a 6¾ improvement. Export inspections were pegged at 24.2 mbu, which was above last week and within trade estimates. Fundamentals in the corn market are still rather bearish, but a record short position in the funds triggered buying back of over 15,000 contracts yesterday. Corn was also led higher by a stronger wheat market. These factors all made for an outside trade day, meaning a higher high and a lower low than last Friday’s trade. Harvest progress was pegged at 38% vs. a 59% number both last year and on the 5-year average. We are behind schedule, but as it has been said before, our supplies are plenty.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – down 3
Soybeans yesterday were supported by the corn and wheat markets, but unfortunately those stories weren’t not strong enough to continue that support in the overnight trade. USDA put harvest progress at 70% vs. a 73% 5-year average. We are also behind this week last year, when we were 74% complete. The western corn belt should be able to continue good progress, with a favorable nearby forecast. Weather in Mato Grosso, Brazil continues to improve with beneficial rains in the forecast. Export inspections were excellent at 94.2 mbu, which was well above trade estimates and last week’s number.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – MPLS down 1, KC down 2
Like corn, Kansas City wheat tested contract lows early yesterday, and finished the day with a rally to end 10¾ higher. Minneapolis wheat was able to follow suit and close 3¾ higher. Technically, we appear to be hitting some tough overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average in the Minneapolis Dec17 contract. Winter Wheat planting progress is at 75% this week, vs. 78% last year at this time and 80% on the 5-year average. Wheat inspections yesterday were rather sad, pegged at 6.2 mbu. That number is nearly half of last week’s number and well below estimates. A story from Reuters yesterday claimed that Egypt has enough wheat in reserves to last them 4 months. Again, with the large world supplies—they just don’t go away overnight!