January 30, 2012
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager
CORN: 8 lower
This morning it appears as if we will have a pure weather market that we are dealing with. The forecast for South America is for cooler and wetter weather for all of the spots that need just such a forecast while in northern Brazil it appears as if the rain is letting up and they will have great harvest weather. That will in all probability have both corn and beans lower on the open this morning.
It is also probably worth noting that Iran is indicating that they may cease selling crude oil to Europe. Some folks are suggesting that if this is in fact the case we could see crude make a move to the $120 to $150/barrel level. With corn in effect being a fuel source it would seem to make logical sense that if this occurs corn prices will move higher as well.
SOYBEANS: 14 lower
As discussed in the corn comments, this market has been living and dying with each fresh South American weather forecast and the most current forecast has plenty of precipitation in it for Argentina, hence we should start out lower today.
WHEAT: 4 lower
We have a weather market going in wheat as well but instead of South America the focus of the wheat market is currently on Europe. Specifically there are concerns that Ukraine and portions of Russia don’t have enough snow cover to prevent the winter wheat from taking a real beating from the brutally cold weather they have experienced the past week or so. I should also note that Russia is having a government grains meeting tomorrow and there is some thought that we may see an export tax announcement come out of that meeting. If so it would be supportive to the wheat market. At the end of the day, while I have just shared with you a lot of fundamental news that appears to be positive I still expect wheat to succumb to the pressure of the other grains and open lower.
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.