October 18, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn continuing to trade pennies on either side of $3.50 futures, and the overall pattern is stuck between a rock, at the contract low of $3.42, and a hard place at $3.55 December futures. US harvest progress is behind the 5-year average, 28% vs 47%. Weather forecasts are warm and dry. Expect pressure to remain as we continue to pick away at harvest. On Tuesday morning a sale of 4.5 million bushels of US corn, to Mexico, was announced, and an additional sale of 5.7 million bushels were sold to unknow destinations. Both sales were for the 2017/2018 market year.
Soybeans: 1 lower
Non-threatening weather forecasts pressures the bean markets. US to harvest a record 4.43 billion bushels of SB’s. Brazil remains dry during planting, and USDA is expecting them to start the new marketing year at 184 million bushels of SB’s. China remains hungry for soybeans. On to fundamentals. As we see in the graph below on Friday, last week, November soybeans hit resistance at the $9.99 futures level. This was at the the 61.8% retracement level of the latest down trend from $10.47, back in July, to $9.21 set in mid-August. Now soybeans are trying to find support around $9.84.
Wheat: MPLS: steady KC: 2 lower
MPLS wheat continues its slow, sideways to lower trend. KC wheat continues to move sideways, with support at $4.25 futures. Winter Wheat seedings are behind pace, at 60% vs the 5-year average of 71%. One wonders if farmers are looking for alternatives? USDA predicting large wheat productions for 2017/18. French, Argentina and Black Sea wheat remain the most competitive.