October 13, 2017
Producer Marketing Manager
Good Morning, its Friday the 13th…..
CORN: As of 7:45 – Up 1
Dec corn closed up 3 cents yesterday in spite of USDA raising the yield 1.9pba to 171.8. This is only 2.8 less than Last Year’s record with a Crop condition report that at 64% G/EX is 9% below Last Year..??? The big question of the year is how the condition report could be so much lower than Last Year while yields are nearing Last Year’s level. Things that make you go hmmmmm….. Yesterday’s gains were definitely due to the bean complex being very strong along with world stocks tightening just a touch. Below is a map with the state-by-state USDA yields. BIG export sales out this morning for corn at 62.7 million bushels…..top end of trade expectations was 28! Mexico was the big buyer by booking 39.9 million bushels.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – UP 3
A little volatility was added back into the soybean market yesterday as we seen carryout numbers drop by 45 million bushels due in part to a smaller yield factor (49.5) and a smaller carry-in number from our Sept 1 stocks number. The demand side of the balance sheet was unchanged on this report which left the carryout at 430 million bushels……still higher than last year, but will the trend of lower yield continue??? USDA state-by-state yields are shown below with adjustments from the Sept report. Like corn, Soybeans showed a LARGE export sales number this morning of 64.2 million bushels. The trade was expecting 37-48. China booked 37.5 and Unknown booked 12.9.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – Mpls Up 3, KC Up 1
All wheat carryout increased on yesterday’s report and when broken down by class the HRW crop carryout grew 24 million bushels on reduced demand, the HRS balance sheet showed a gain in production that contributed to a larger carryout. Needless to say that the wheat market did not participate in the market excitement like soybeans did. World Wheat was the bearish driver today as 17/18 world production increased 6.3 MMT to 751.2 MMT. Wheat export sales were well below expectations at 6.4 million bushels (expecting 11-18)