September 26, 2017
Producer Marketing Manager
CORN: As of 7:45 – Steady
The corn crop continues to lag in maturity and is showing in the USDA crop progress report yesterday with 51% of the US corn crop mature vs the 5 yr average of 64%. SD is only 32% mature, well below 61% mature last year and the 5 yr average of 57% as of this date. Overnight we were slightly lower as we trade right at the 20 day moving average of $3.53 ½ on the Dec contract. We are watching the river markets closely as low water levels are restricting the amount of grain that can be loaded into barges and this is increasing the cost of freight on the Miss. The higher barge freight has not been met by higher values at the Gulf, so interior basis levels have dropped at river terminals substantially over the past 3 business days.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – Down 3
Crop progress this week has the US soybean crop at 10% harvested. This is on pace with the national average, but in the northern plains it remains behind average at 4% complete in SD and 9% complete in ND. The weekend rains will more than likely put us even farther behind in next Monday’s report. Soybeans were the weakest of the commodities yesterday as harvest progress and more and more anecdotal reports of “better than expected” yields put pressure on futures and basis levels. The Nov contract is trading just above support at the 50 day moving average of $9.66.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – Mpls down 1, KC Up 2
Very beneficial rains covered a bulk of the HRW belt over the past 3 days. This should at the very least stabilize any discussion of reduced wheat acreage as once conditions dry out a bit, there should be active wheat planting. US HRW planting is pegged at 13% complete in yesterday’s USDA crop progress report. The Mpls HRS contracts were up double digits yesterday as the trade is looking for a favorable USDA report on Friday – a cut in US HRS harvested acreage.