ptember 22, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: up 2
Low trade volume in the overnight on corn, it seems to be a reluctant follower of the soybeans this morning. Export sales came in slightly below average at 526.9 tmt. 6.9 mmt behind last year and 4 mmt below the pace that is needed to meet USDA projections. There were several articles out about China planning to roll out an E10 ethanol by 2020. A lot of talk on what that means for China imports going forward or can they add more production? As of right now there is no mandate for this it basically a goal. On another note China is expected to increase exports by 8.4% in 17/18. That would raise it to 221.97 MMT according to the CNGOIC. Last night we did trade in a small 3 cent range. The corn market is still waiting on yield until then expect sideways choppy trade. December 2018 futures are at 3.95 a target level of 4.00 would look pretty good.
Beans: up 7
Soybeans finding strength from soybean meal strength and poor early yields coming out of the south east and delta. We have traded through the 200 DMA at 9.77 up to 9.78. A close at or above that 200 DMA would be a good sign that we could continue this upward trend with the funds sitting even on the bean market and possibly looking to build a position. The good export sales we continue to get keeps a floor under this market at that 100 DMA of 9.60. This week’s export sales were great at 2.338 mmt, of course China was number one on that list. IA and the Eastern corn belt look wide open as far as weather goes to get a good jump on harvest over the next 10 days. South American farmers are waiting to get in the field to plant corn and beans. Brazil is very dry, Argentina is water logged and the rest of September looks wet for them.
Wheat: MPLS up 4 KC up 2
Weekly export sales were weak at307 tmt vs the trade guess of 300-500 tmt. Looks like we are getting some fund short covering and profit taking ahead of next week’s small grain summary and the September 1st stock report. MPLS finding strength on a low protein and that in next Fridays report the USDA could possibly lower harvested acres and carryout.