September 19, 2017
Morning Market Insight
Corn: up 1
Finding some support in the overnight trade with the USDA crop progress report that came out at 7% harvest when average trade estimate was 10%. Export inspections yesterday were below average trade guess at 26.6 mln bu. Harvest in the South is in full force now and early yields have been descent. Iowa and Illinois will be the test as they suffered from dry weather in June and July. Yesterday funds were also sellers of an estimated 7,000 contracts. The US dollar is down 150 points this morning lending some support to these grain markets this morning. It has declined over 10% since January.
Soybean harvest is 4% complete right in line with last year and the 5 year average. The November contract is having trouble breaking the 200 day moving average at 9.79. This feels like a good place to get a sale on with a bigger crop just getting bigger. Also with USDA predicting we have 4 million more acres of beans this year vs last year. This with a trend line yield could put us closer to a 500 mln bu carryout. On the export side we have gone 7 straight days with USDA announcements of bean sales. In the first 2 weeks of the 2017/2018 marketing year we have had a total of 75 million bushels in export sales. Hurricane Maria is following the path of Irma. It looks like it could hit GA, SC, and NC. These states are on the tail end of corn harvest as for bean harvest it is just getting started these 3 states alone are expected to produce about 83 million bushels.
Wheat: MPLS up 1 KC up 3
Inspections came in at 17.1 million bushels, at the top end of expectations. Wheat market hanging in there mostly following the corn market. MPLS wheat has slowly trailed off since the beginning of June. You can find support on the December contract at the 200 day moving average of 6.11 and resistance at the 100 day moving average of 6.60.