Sept 13, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: As of 7:45 up 2 1/4
In a surprise move, USDA raised mostly everything on the corn side of the report. Yield went to 169.9 vs 169.5. 17/18 production was increased to 14.184 vs 14.153. They did take down 16/17 end stocks slightly. With the release of the report corn markets plummeted down 15 at one point, but did make a decent rebound to close down 6. We have seen the price perk up in the overnight trade as Dec contracts is up a 2 1/4 at 3.54. It may not be to early to start looking at NC 2018 crop as we are within a nickel of $4.00z. May be a good place to start. Get those targets working!!!
Soybeans: As of 7:45 up 4
USDA did not play with soybean numbers as much but it still had a big impact on prices. They increased yield to 49.9 vs 49.4 which jumped their production estimates to 4.431 vs 4.381, They did leave 17/18 end stocks alone at 475mb but decreased 16/17 end stocks. All this in turn sent beans 28 lower at one point. They did rebound to close only 9 lower. World carryout at 97.5mmt, and 1.6mmt above the 16/17 carryout. World demand remains all about China, with their 2017/18 imports projected about 12mmt above 2 years ago. We are seeing a post report pop as beans are currently up 3.5 to 9.54x. Warmer weather in some parts of the country side is pushing beans to turn quickly. In some areas combines are already rolling.
Wheat: KC up 3 ½ HRS up 1
USDA mainly left the wheat balance sheet alone yesterday, changes were mostly made per class. Winter wheat stocks were increased. Right now focus is that stocks to use ratio is high across the board on and we have ample world supplies. Plus we are seeding next years crop on top of that! USDA also pegs world ending stocks at 263.14mmt…this compare to 217mmt at end of 14/15 crop year. We are seeing a decent bounce in WW on the overnight as Dec market is up close to 3 1/2. Spring with a modest bounce of a penny.