August 10, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Report day! Contact your local Grain Marketing Specialist to enter a target offer and take advantage of possible pricing opportunities. USDA WASDE report will be released at 11 am CDT.
CORN: As of 7:45 – Steady
Midday weather models yesterday gave us a little boost to close near session highs. As it turns out, the Midwest’s cool streak will be coming to an end, without any big rain in the 6-15 day model. Weekly ethanol numbers were released yesterday, which showed that production was up by 10,000 bbu/day and stocks were up 400,000 barrels. The trade is pretty much solely focused on Iowa and Illinois dry weather, and even more so on tomorrow’s WASDE report. A central Illinois crop tour this week showed a 9% decrease in yield at 189.9 bu/acre, and most of the tours this year are expecting a lot of variability as compared to a normal year (what is “normal” anyway??). Average trade guess for yield is 166.2 bu/acre (July USDA number was 170.7). US crop production guesses are at 13.855 billion bushels (July USDA pegged at 14.255). Acreage estimates are 83.418 million acres, compared to 83.496 July. Export sales this week were at 2.0 million bushels- up from last week’s 1.4 but below the range of guesses.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – Old Crop Up 1, New Crop Up 5
The flash sale news we received on Monday was taken away yesterday when USDA announced that the unknown buyer cancelled the 130,000 ton sale for 16/17 crop year. Dry Iowa and Illinois are in the spotlight for the bean market as well, where traders are worried that the crop will struggle to be made in August. The trade is also concerned about the Canadian canola crop due to their dry summer so far. Alabama and Louisiana are scheduled to receive up to 3-5 inches of rain in the next week, and quality/quantity could be affected if those rains continue throughout their harvest. Average trade guesses for the WASDE report this morning are: 47.5 bu/acre (July number was 48.0) and 4.212 billion bushel production (July was 4.260). Acreage is guessed to be 88.699, compared to 88.731 in July. Export sales this week were 1.7 million bushels- below the expected range and last week’s 8.6.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – MPLS Up 3, KC Up 2
Little to no news in the wheat markets lately, although we are seeing a little strength from dryness in the US Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. More rain is expected for Germany and Poland, where quality could become an issue. In France, farmers are receiving better yields than what were originally expected during harvest. Some good rains are expected for the Panhandle states, which will make for good planting conditions. Many experts believe that there will be more wheat acres planted this fall, due to economics and conditions. Today’s USDA report is expected to bring a reduction in overall production in the wheat complex. Production guesses are at 1.711 billion bushels, compared to 1.760 in July. Export sales were pegged at 17.1 million bushels, compared to 5.3 last week and just above the expected range.