August 8, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
USDA will release their monthly Supply & Demand report this Thursday, August 10th. Contact your local Grain Marketing Specialist for more details on pricing opportunities!
CORN: As of 7:45 – Steady
Yesterday’s session concluded near the highs for the day on continued dry weather concerns throughout key corn (and soybean) producing regions of the United States. It is estimated that 25-30% of the corn/bean belt is under moisture stress this year. Although we are experiencing cooler than normal temps for the next 7-10 days, we are also lacking a good forecast for much needed moisture. The main areas of dryness concerns right now are in southern Illinois and Iowa. Crop conditions were reported at 60% good/excellent, down 1% from a week ago. We also received evidence of continuing demand, when USDA reported a 180,800 ton flash sale to Mexico for the 17/18 crop year. Export Inspections were at 38.5 million bushels, below last week's 39.1 but in line with trade estimates.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – Old Crop Up 10, New Crop Up 8
With the fresh news for corn sales came the same for soybeans yesterday- USDA announced a 206,000 ton flash sale to unknown in the 16/17 crop year. Export Inspections this week were above expectations at 25.2 million bushels… we are still ahead of the projected USDA number but the gap has been closing for a few months now and the last 4 weeks of the crop year will most likely continue to close that gap and finish right in line with their number- South America’s product is more competitive than the United States on the export market. We saw follow through buying for a little recovery from the sell-off last week due to a lack of decent rains in key areas of the United States. Conditions this week improved 1% to 60% good/excellent, which was right in line with trade expectations. With that national improvement came a 4% bump in SD and a 3% improvement in ND.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – MPLS Up 3, KC Up 3
Wheat spent the day yesterday following corn and soybeans higher on the charts. While there are some areas of the world struggling to produce a decent crop (US Upper Plains, Canadian Prairie, Australia, Germany), Russia is predicted to reap a record crop this year: between 74 and 75 million metric tons. Harvest of HRS in North Dakota is getting started, but recent rains have slowed that down a tad. That comes with the possibility of hindering quality in terms of color and test weight on affected areas. Although a lot of wheat ended up in a bale early on, we have been seeing about 3-8 bushels per acre higher than what was expected. Which factor will affect the market direction more? It seems as though we at least avoided a total crop disaster. Spring Wheat conditions this week were raised by 1% to 32% good/excellent. Winter Wheat harvest is at 94% complete. Exports of US wheat this week were at 21.5 million bushels, which was right in the estimated range and the same number as last week.