June 14, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Ethanol numbers to be released this morning. The next USDA report is Friday, June 30th.
The market showed good strength on turnaround Tuesday as wheat led the charge with wheat conditions dropping sharply Monday night. Informa released their updated acreage numbers and showed an increase to 90.2 mln acres, above the USDA acreage figure. Dr. Cordonnier increased his Brazilian production estimate 1MMT, now at 94MMT with Argentina unchanged at 39MMT. We now have less than 3 weeks until the June 30th stocks report as traders continue to analyze acreage shift implications to the balance sheet. Make sure to have your targets working during the volatile time! Nearby support for July corn is $3.7625 N17 with resistance at $3.9175. Below is a look at the day chart for December corn with the 100-day moving average.
SOYBEANS (Up 4)
Informa’s new bean acre estimate was lowered 300k acres from last month to 89.4 mln acres on Tuesday. The overall trader bias seems to be an increased amount of bean acres in the June 30th report, time will tell if this will be proved right. The initial soybean crop rating on Monday night was a little lower than anticipated at 66% G/E. Dr. Cordonnier raised his Argentina production estimate to 57 MMT and increased the Brazil production estimate 2MMT to 113MMT. Nearby support is found at $9.095 with resistance at $9.4475 on the July contract. Below is a look at the day chart for November beans with the 50-day moving average.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 10, Kansas City Up 4)
Conditions, conditions, conditions… Spring wheat rallies as conditions ratings for the U.S. crop are the worst since 1988. Winter wheat ratings are 11% behind last year, currently reporting at 50% G/E. Informa estimated wheat acres to be down 360k acres to 45.9 mln acres. The USDA estimate for planted acres is currently at 46.06 mln acres. With wheat values improving be sure to stay in contact with your local grain marketing specialist on how to protect your profits, lock in a floor and keep your upside open during this volatile time before the June 30th report. Nearby support for Minneapolis July futures is found at $5.895 with resistance at $6.51. Nearby support for Kansas City July futures is found at $4.3925 with resistance at $4.60.