June 7, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
CORN: As of 7:45 – up 4
Corn traded to the top of its trading range yesterday, but couldn’t quite break through. We have been stuck between 3.60 and 3.80 on the July chart since last October (minus a rally in February) and finally broke through resistance again to finish at the high price overnight of 3.81 1/2. The market is expecting a reduction in acres during the June 30th report, but we also need to remember those big global supplies. South America’s crop is growing with every new report it seems, and Brazil could very well see a 100 million metric ton crop. Below is a chart for nearby corn.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – up 7
We have been seeing a little bit of a bounce from recent lows, but that is not due to a bullish fundamental story – mostly technical correction. We can also thank Spring Wheat for leading beans higher yesterday (and corn for that matter). With the expected drop in corn acres comes an expected bump in beans, due to the wet weather the eastern corn belt had earlier this planting season. Right now, it is just hard to build a bullish bean story. Like corn in South America, their bean crop is also forecasted to be large. Next week will be the first crop conditions ratings from the USDA, and 65-70% G/E is average to start the season.
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – Mpls steady, KC up 6
Minneapolis wheat lead the way higher yesterday, and the July ‘17 contract actually traded above 6.00 for the first time since June of last year. Weather has been a big factor in recent run, particularly the dry area that covers North Dakota, parts of South Dakota and Montana, and the South Canadian prairie. Thankfully, there is some rain forecasted for that area in the next 6-10 days. We will take whatever we can get, as topsoil moisture is 54% short/very short in the Dakota’s, compared to 12% last year.