5-11-17
Brad Olson
Grain Marketing Specialist

 

Corn: As of 7:45- 2 lower

The news for the day yesterday was the crop report. US balance sheet showed nothing surprising for 16/17 or 17/18 but a combination of a decrease in 17/18 Global carryout and a large spec short had corn firming as much as 7 1/4c. Just a minor tweak to the 16/17 balance sheet increasing food/seed use by 25. We also seen our first look at the 17/18 estimates which is penciling a 2.295 bbu carryout which was within the range of expectations. The surprise came on the world front as 17/18 carryout estimated at 195.3 falling short of both estimates of 209 and 16/17 of 223.9. Ethanol production did perk up a bit as well to 1006k barrels/day seeing the first to punch through the 1000 mark in over a month. Export sales at a disappointing 277.7 for 16/17 and net -55.1 for 17/18


Map below shows the past 7 days precip and the forecast for the next 5.

Soybeans: As of 7:45- 1 higher

Soybeans seeing just minor tweaking as well with a decrease in crush of 15 but an increase 25 for exports to net a result of a slight decrease in 16/17 carryout to 435 (still adequate). We did see some fireworks immediately following the release but soon faded before ultimately settling in the red by days close. 17/18 carryout estimated at .480 which was below estimated but again comfortable. Global carryout for 16/17 increased to 90.1 and estimates for 17/18 at 88.8. And now we look to be back to trading weather, planting and conditions….
Export sales at 381.4 for 16/17 and 70 for 17/18 which fell within the range if expectations.

Wheat: As of 7:45- 1 lower to 2 higher


Net effect of no changes to the 16/17 carryout for wheat yesterday and we traded as such. KC settled just a ½ higher with MW 4 higher. 17/18 carryout estimated at .914 which is down from 16/17’s 1.159. For the rest of the world global increased 255.4 from 252.3  last month for the 16/17 crop year and estimates for the 17/18 at 258.3. Export sales at a net -24.2 for 16/17 and 273.4 for 17/18.