April 21, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
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Export sales were in line with expectations at 29.8mln bushels, well above the 12.7mln bushels needed weekly to reach the USDA forecast. In world news, the China Agriculture Ministry expects domestic corn production to fall due to a 2.5% decrease in planted acres. The funds still maintain their ~150k contract short position heading into Spring planting. The 10-14-day weather outlook looks for continued wet and cool weather. Will this spark a trimming of the fund’s position? Make sure to have your targets working before the busy spring season just in case things decide to spike on planting or acreage concerns. For May corn futures nearby support is found at $3.5725 with resistance showing up at $3.73. Below is a look at the 7-day precipitation outlook.
SOYBEANS (Up 2)
Bean export sales were a little light on Thursday, showing only 7.8mln bushels of new sales. The trade was looking for a number closer to 15 mln. The Brazilian farmer is holding tight on selling anymore beans as basis rallies in South America, making U.S. beans more competitive in the world market. China released estimates that they plan for a 13% increase in soybean productions as planted acres continue to increase. The March planting intentions report told us that the USDA expects 89.5 mln acres of beans this coming year, can this number grow with a wet Spring? Food for thought, this number is a record and up 7% over last year. Nearby support for May beans is seen at $9.365 with resistance at $9.595. Nearby support for November beans is found at $9.5025 with resistance at $9.6825.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 2, Kansas City Down 2)
The wheat global stocks scenario still looks ample even with a poor Russian crop. Germany’s wheat harvest is forecast to be up nearly 3% year on year. StatsCan numbers released this morning showed reduced wheat acres and increases in planted acres for canola, corn and soybeans in Canada. North Dakota looks to be trending lower on acres as well with what looks to be a wet Spring on deck. Wheat export sales were mediocre as 15.2 mln bushels of new sales were reported, well above the 1.5 mln bushels needed weekly to reach the USDA forecast. Nearby support for Minneapolis May futures is found at $5.1525 with resistance at $5.43 on the 100-day moving average. Nearby support for Kansas City May futures is found at the nominal $4.00 mark with resistance at $4.32.