April 19, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Ethanol numbers to be released this morning
Reminder…targets work 17 hours a day, even when you’re in the field. Contact your local Grain Marketing Specialist to establish target objectives before the busy Spring season!
Corn planting progress is a few points behind the average for this time of year but it doesn’t look to be a huge concern in the mid-April timeframe. Forecasts are predicting the wet pattern to hold over the next couple weeks. Dr. Cordonnier came out with updated production numbers for Argentina and Brazil, which were left the same at 37mln tons for Argentina and 90mln tons for Brazil. A potential positive that traders seem to be focused on is the ~150k contract short position non-commercial funds hold. Some believe that if the funds were to start trimming this position we could see some strength in corn, time will tell on this. For May corn futures nearby support is found at $3.5725 with resistance showing up at $3.73. Below is a look at the day chart for December corn with the 100-day moving average
SOYBEANS (Up 5)
Tuesday’s downturn looked to be attributed to current weak demand on beans as NOPA’s crush number was a little light on Monday. Dr. Cordonnier cut Argentina’s bean production to 55 mln tons due to recent rains and kept Brazil’s production the same at 109mln tons. As of last Friday, the COT report showed funds short an estimated 50k contracts, this is the second week that the funds are showing a net short position. Something to watch…If continued rains are seen across much of the corn belt over the next two weeks will bean acres grow? Nearby support for May beans is seen at $9.365 with resistance at $9.595. Below is a look at the day chart for November 17 beans.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 1, Kansas City Unchanged)
The Minneapolis wheat market popped Tuesday after slow planting progress was reported Monday night. The fundamentals on this are not realized at this point but the market looks to be putting a risk premium into values. The dollar sharply fell on Tuesday adding fuel to the spike in price. The funds were estimated buyers of 1k contracts during Tuesday’s trading session. StatsCan will publish their planting intentions report on wheat this Friday with the trade expecting to see wheat acres down 3.5%. Nearby support for Minneapolis May futures is found at $5.1525 with resistance at $5.43 on the 100-day moving average. Nearby support for Kansas City May futures is found at $4.15 with resistance at $4.32.