April 6, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Yesterday corn was unable to break the technical resistance of the 100 day moving average at 3.66 on the May contract. Fund activity was light yesterday. Ethanol production was down hard this week at 1019 thousand barrels per day with record high stocks at 23705 thousand barrels. Weather is king right now and is going to determine more or less corn acres from our 89.9 mln acres. A good spring equals more corn, a bad spring more beans. Corn exports have been strong and should continue to be. South America doesn’t have much to offer right now. Mato Grosso double crop is still probably 30 days from pollination. Export sales out this morning at 44.8 mbu. Well above the 16.3 mbu needed weekly and almost double what the average trade guess was.
Beans: up 1
A technical bounce helped beans closed up 6 yesterday and we are up another penny this morning at 9.45 on the May contract. New crop currently up half a penny at 9.54. The eastern corn belt is wet and they again caught rains last night. The forecast continues to have moisture in it. Wet weather usually adds bean acres. Still very early though with not many planters rolling yet. Palm oil rallied supporting the soy complex yesterday. Export sales were out this morning at 17.7 mbu. Down 8 mbu from last week but right in line with trade estimates. USDA only needs .7 weekly to meet yearly expectations but more and more bean business is shifting direction to South America.
Wheat: MPLS unchanged Kansas up 1
Wheat continues its choppy sideways trend. Winter wheat is weighed down by large stocks and elss feed usage. Winter wheat exports have picked up. Some countries are tendering for wheat. Japan for instance tendering for 120 tmt. The US could see this business because of the good quality wheat we have. US wheat prices are very competitive with the Black Sea. Export sales were out this morning and wheat exports came in at 20.9 mbu, about 3.9 mbu better then estimates.