March 28, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
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The USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports will be released Friday, at 11:00am CT.
Corn: Up 2
The corn market traded lower early in yesterday’s session on abundant world supplies and spillover weakness in the wheat market. It was a nice bounce from the overnight session as nearby markets gained 2. Dec corn was also up 2. Prices reaped support from decent export demand numbers. Export inspections for corn came in at 1.556 mmt, just above the top end of the estimated range of 1.200-1.500 mmt. Average trade estimate for March 1 grain stocks is at 8.534 billion bushels (8.205-8.900) versus 7.822 billion bushels last year at this time. Rains across Mato Grosso and Goias (Central Brazil) will favor the Safrinha corn crop.
Soybeans: Up 3
The soy complex traded lower yesterday on big crop ideas out of SA and a significant increase in US planted acres for 2017. Beans finally found some positive gains as nearby was up 3 and Nov was up 2 ¾. Export inspections for soybeans came in at 0.555 mmt, on the lower end of the estimate range of 0.500-0.700 mmt. The average trade estimate for the quarterly grain stocks as of March 1st is at 1.684 billion bushels (1.627-1.885) versus 1.531 billion bushels this time last year Rains across western Argentina are likely to favor the soybean crop, but will slow down the drying process. AgRural estimate’s Brazil’s soybean harvest 68% completed, slightly ahead of the average pace of 62%.
Wheat: Up 1
The wheat market traded lower yesterday on improved chances of moisture for the HRW area’s in the south this week. Weakness in the US$ did not seem to have an impact on wheat prices. KC led the way lower on ideas of beneficial moisture for the plains this week. Wheat market saw some slight positive action on the overnight as both Minny and KC were up a penny. Winter wheat condition should come in steady to a slight decline after last week’s warm/dry conditions. Weekend rains fell across the Southern Plains, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25-2.00 inches. More rain is in the forecast and should help ease drought issues. The average trade estimate for 2017 US plantings is at 46.139 million acres for All Wheat (44.2-48.2), 32.554 for All Winter Wheat (32.0-34.5), 11.358 for Other Spring Wheat (9.9-12.2) and 2.115 million acres for Durum (1.9-2.5). The average trade estimate for quarterly stocks is at 1.627 billion bushels (1.4501.721) versus 1.372 billion bushels this time last year. Export inspections for wheat came in at 0.542 mmt, in the middle of the estimated trade range of 0.450-0.650 mmt.