February 24, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Update on base insurance prices during month of February:
The Ag Outlook forum estimated planted corn acres to be at 90mln this coming year, which is slightly below average trade estimates and down 4mln acres from this past year. They estimated total planted acres across all grains to be down 3.9mln acres from this past year. The forum also raised its average farm price for corn from $3.40 this year to $3.50 for this coming year. Ethanol numbers reported Thursday showed production down 6k barrels per day and total stocks up 169k barrels for the week. Export sales reported this morning showed 29.3mln bushels worth of new sales. Nearby support for March corn is found at $3.6175 with resistance at $3.80.
SOYBEANS (Up 4)
The Ag Outlook forum did not disappoint the bears in the bean market as projected planted acres came in at 88 mln acres. If these acres come true this would be a 4.6mln acre jump from this past year. Export sales reported this morning showed 15.2 mln bushels of new sales, which was a little on the low side for trade estimates. The extended forecast for Argentina is beginning to look a little drier, which should help harvest progress move along. For what it’s worth, the USDA raised its average farm price for beans from $9.50 this past year to $9.60 for this coming year. Nearby support for March beans is found at $9.9275 with resistance showing up at $10.335 on the 50-day moving average. Below is a look at the day chart for NC beans, November 17 futures with the 100 day moving average. We are pretty close to reaching the 100-day, will it hold?
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 1, Kansas City Down 2)
The trade was expecting a reduction in wheat acres for this coming year and that held true as the USDA estimates 46mln acres this coming year. This is 4.2mln acres less than last year’s planted wheat acres figure. With the reduction of acres, the USDA raised the average farm price of wheat from $3.85 this past year to $4.30 for this coming year. Wheat export sale came in at 16.6mln bushels, which is better than the ~10mln bushel figure we need to keep pace with the USDA forecast. Nearby support for Minneapolis March futures is found at $5.30 with resistance at the 50 day moving average of $5.53. Nearby support for Kansas City March futures is found at $4.475 with resistance found at $4.745.