February 7, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
Thursday February 9th the USDA S&D report will be released at 11:00 A.M.
On Monday the March corn contract saw a 6 cent trading range. Caught between the 200 day moving average and the 20 day moving average and ending the day down a penny at 3.63 ¾. Corn inspections for week ending Feb 2, 2017 were right in line with expectations at 43.82 mbu. In the USDA report on Thursday we could see a cut in ending stocks due to stronger ethanol usage. The average analysts’ estimates for 16/17 corn carryout is 2.334 bbu vs 2.355 bbu last month. Also be watching how the USDA handles South America production in this particular report. Slight concern about Brazil’s wet weather and trying to get started on double crop planting. Below is a chart of the March corn chart with the 200 day moving average looming over head and the 20 day moving average below the market.
Soybeans: down 1
Yesterday, soybeans traded to the plus side unable to hold on to the double digit gains, closing up 9 cents on the nearby contract and gaining back most of what was lost on Friday. China is back from its week long New Year holiday which helped support the gains made yesterday along with fund buying fueled by record bean demand from the US and SA. Resistance on the March contract is the 20 day moving average at 10.42, with support being the 200 day moving average at 10.16. Soybean inspections came in strong at 60.1 mln bu. The year to date soybean export commitments are 90% of total USDA estimates for the year. The 5 year average for this time is 86%. We could see a decrease in ending stocks on Thursday thanks to strong export demand. The average analysts’ estimate is a 412 mbu carryout vs 420 mbu last month.
Wheat: Minneapolis and KC both down 2
Minneapolis wheat saw a two sided trade yesterday closing the day down 3 cents at 5.55 on the nearby contract. Kansas wheat finished down 4 cents at 4.35 on the nearby contract. Wheat inspections for week ending 2/2/17 came in at 22.7 mbu which is 2.8 mbu better than the amount needed to meet USDA estimates. The average analysts’ estimate for the USDA S&D report Thursday is a 1.176 bbu carryout vs 1.186 bbu in the January report.