January 3, 2012
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager

CORN: 3 higher

I think my slow cousin Jimmy could call this market today.  As I pen these words crude oil is up over two bucks a barrel, the dollar is down sharply and they received very limited rain in South America over the week-end.  That sounds like a bullish trifecta to me and should have this market opening stronger this morning.  What we will need to look for is potential fund selling as the re-balancing begins as well as increased farmer selling as the market rallies.  Both of these activities could take the edge off of the market.  Technically all of my indicators are bullish and we are banging right up against some significant Fibonacci resistance levels.  Should be an interesting day.
SOYBEANS: 5 higher

With our good buddies in Iran test firing missiles over the week-end as they practice shutting down the Strait of Hormuz it is probably not a surprise that crude oil is higher this morning.  As also previously mentioned the dollar is lower so that would tend to be supportive to our cause.  The rain that they did pick up in South America over the week-end appears as if it fell in the northern and central portions of Brazil and not in the more drought stricken areas of southern Brazil and Argentina.  As one analyst that I spoke with this morning pointed out, if we have a repeat of the 2008/09 drought in Argentina we could see losses of 14 MMT of corn and 22 MMT of soybeans.  As my slow cousin Jimmy likes to say, “Cwaig I wode the showt bus and even I can see that is bullish.”  Technically, all of my indicators are bullish with the next significant level of Fibonacci resistance coming in at $12.20 in the March futures.  

WHEAT: 4 higher

Wheat will continue to tag along for the ride.  With the finds short 45,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts as we start out this week I would look for fund buying to be a feature in the wheat market when the fund re-allocation process takes place and that of course should be supportive.  From a technical perspective two of the three indicators are bullish Minneapolis wheat and all three are bullish Kansas City futures as we kick things off this morning.  The next level of Fibonacci derived resistance in the Minneapolis September futures coming in at $8.08.

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.