January 9, 2017
Grain Marketing Specialist
US Quarter Stocks Report out at 11 am on Thursday, January 12th.
Do you have your targets in place?
Corn is trading steady, and continues to float around the “higher” end of the its sideways trend. ($3.45 - $3.65 March futures and $3.75 - $3.90 Dec futures) Export sales last week were well below expectations. Most traders attribute those numbers to the holiday season. Informa released their expectations of the South American crop. They left Brazil unchanged at 87 million metric tons, and Argentina was lowered 500k to 36 million metric tons. Overall, we see the corn trade to continue its sideways trend.
Soybeans: 2 higher
Last week we seen the soybean complex lose some ground. How did we get there? Export sales were not good. Traders expected between 29-44 million bushels of soybeans to be sold, but that number came in at 3.2 million. Soymeal sales were expected between 100-300k metric tons. Reported sales were at 83.3k metric tons. Informa adjusted their South American soybean production numbers last week. They suspect Argentina’s total production to be down 1 million metric tons from the USDA’s 55 MMT estimate, and Brazil’s total production to be 3 million metric tons higher than the USDA’s 105 MMT estimate. All of this information moved the March soybean futures below the 100 day moving average and is holding around levels not seen since the middle of November.
Wheat continues to surprise as both the MPLS and KC complexes move higher. This is spurred by concerns about cold US temps in the winter wheat areas and Funds re-balancing. The trend has turned higher. Let’s see if we will be able to survive the USDA Report this Thursday.