November 17, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
US Dollar is lower this morning and is supporting the grain markets.
Corn: 1 higher
Corn could not break through the 100 day moving average of $3.43 yesterday, as pressure from US Dollar, which moved to its highest level since 2003, killed early gains. We are seeing some recovery this morning, with the 100 day moving average now at $3.42 and three quarters with support at $3.37. We continue sideways trading in this narrow range until something can break loose. Export numbers today were at 65.4 million bushels. This was above the 30.3 million bushels needed to keep with USDA’s pace.
Soybeans are also gaining back some of the loss it accrued from yesterday’s trade. Pressure from the US Dollar, yesterday, turned the market lower despite a reported sale of 6.06 million bushels of soybeans to China for the 2016/2017 marketing year. After looking at the moving averages for corn, yesterday, I applied the same study to the soybean chart. The 100-day moving average, shown in blue, and the 20-day moving, shown in purple, are both indicating some major resistance at $9.95, and the 50-day average, shown in light blue, is holding support at $9.85. Again we are seeing another narrow range of trade. Exports reported today were at 52.1 million bushels. This was above the 18.8 needed to keep with USDA’s pace.
Winter wheat also felt the pressure yesterday from the higher dollar and the corn and soybean market. Spring wheat managed to close higher. Overall sentiment remains the same. There is a lot of wheat out there, both nationally and globally. With a higher US dollar, it will be hard to compete. Exports this morning were reported at 22 million bushels. This was about the 12.9 million bushels needed to keep with USDA’s pace.