November 3, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Export sales will be released this morning and the next USDA report is next Wednesday, November 9th
CORN (Up 1)
Losses on Wednesday were attributed to technical selling as corn makes a new short-term low. The dollar actually has backed well off its recent highs but commodities don’t seem to react at this point. Election talk continues to circulate as traders position ahead of next Tuesday’s results. Export sales are estimated to be around 30 mln bushels for the week which would be in line with the needed amount to reach the USDA forecast. Weekly ethanol production was up 31k barrels per day to 1.022mln barrels per day which is the highest level of the marketing year thus far. Ethanol stocks were reported down 200k barrels week on week. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.4625 with resistance found at $3.59.
SOYBEANS (Up 2)
The reason for the downward slide on beans seems to be two-fold as bearish crude oil inventories were reported and the trade anticipates the USDA increasing yield in next week’s report. Export sales are estimated to be around 50 mln bushels for the week which is well above the 18 mln bushels needed weekly to reach the USDA forecast. Neutral weather remains prominent in many areas of Brazil as they are now on the last leg of planting beans. The trade is estimating aggressive U.S. exports over the next month as we look to continue shipping 100 mln bushels plus a week. Nearby support for November futures is found at $9.695 with resistance at $10.20. Below is a look at the day chart for January 17 beans with the 50 day moving average.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Unchanged, Kansas City Unchanged)
Winter wheat conditions look better than last year but far from perfect. Export sales are estimated to be between 15-22mln bushels with 12.4 mln bushels needed to reach the USDA forecast. Australia looks to have some damage from early yield reports. The dollar seemed to aid support to wheat futures Wednesday as the funds were net buyers on the day. Nearby support for Minneapolis December futures is found at $5.14 with resistance at $5.38. Nearby support for Kansas City December futures is found at $4.1075 with resistance at $4.21.