November 2, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
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The week has been good for harvest progress across the entire corn belt as rain doesn’t look to show up in the East until Thursday/Friday. Harvest progress was a little better than trade expectations at 75% complete in Monday evening’s crop progress report. The USDA corrected a 101tmt sale that was originally destined for Barbados to Unknown. Ukraine’s corn harvest continues to be slow as they have covered 15% fewer acres than at this point last year. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.4625 with resistance found at $3.59.
The market showed its worst bean loss in a while as no new export sales were reported and weather remains neutral in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina planting pace is slightly ahead of normal. The market is anticipating 4-5 more weeks of 80-100mln bushel shipments, which bodes well for demand. The supply side of the balance sheet seems to keep growing as private estimates start to trickle out before next week’s USDA report. A few estimates show yield North of 52bpa, which would be close to a 500 mln bushel carryout given the USDA’s current figures. Nearby support for November futures is found at $9.79 with resistance at $10.20.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 1, Kansas City Up 1)
The US dollar falling back Tuesday did little to encourage any buying in Minneapolis or Kansas City markets as the both closed lower for the session. Australian wheat harvest is starting currently and early reports are showing signs of the extreme heat and cold they had impact them throughout the growing season. Nearby support for Minneapolis December futures is found at $5.14 with resistance at $5.38. Nearby support for Kansas City December futures is found at $4.1075 with resistance at $4.21.