October 31, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Happy Halloween!

Export inspections to be released this morning

CORN (Down 2)
Corn ended up finishing positive for the week as we have now ticked up to resistance at $3.58 each of the past 3 weeks. The harvest forecast currently looks okay as most of the corn belt will look to finish the last leg of corn harvest before rain later in the week. Yields seem to be as expected as most reports outside of a couple states look to be on par to better than expectations. PNW continues to focus on bean shipments as there were no corn liftings last week. The bean program looks to be strong through February before we start to see significant uptick in corn shipments out of the PNW. Nearby support can be found at $3.46 just off a recent low. Below is a look at the 7 day precipitation outlook…

SOYBEANS (Down 4)
Beans finished positive for the 5th week in a row despite a bad close on Friday. Demand remains strong as the trade tries to digest how big the supply side of the balance sheet will be by the end of harvest. Harvest progress is estimated to be ~85% complete in this afternoon’s report. Brazil’s Mato Grasso is estimated to be just shy of 70% complete, which is well ahead of last year’s pace. If you haven’t gotten any bushels sold for new crop 2017 be sure to take a look at where we are currently trading as we are back around $9 cash for harvest delivery. Although demand remains strong many analysts are attributing the recent rally to money flow and not bean fundamentals. Keep a close eye on the market as this may be an opportunity to forward sell some binned beans with good carries.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 4, Kansas City Up 2)
Winter wheat planting is close to done and estimated at 85% complete which is line with the 5-year average. The condition of winter wheat is expected to remain unchanged at 60% G/E in this afternoon’s report. French wheat farmers continue to plant at a decent clip but are still slightly behind last year’s 72% complete pace. The Eastern Australia wheat crop was trimmed back due to late-season rains and frost threats. Nearby resistance for Minneapolis December futures is found at $5.38 with support at $5.22. Nearby resistance for Kansas City December futures is found $4.27 with support at $4.095.