October 13, 2016
Producer Marketing Manager
Export sales out tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday.
CORN: As of 7:45 – UP 1
The USDA report was somewhat uneventful with the corn yield coming in close to trade estimates at 173.4 bu/A (Down 1 bu/A from the Sept report). Exports were raised 50 million bu for 16/17 leading to an estimated carryout of 2.32 billion bushels, down 64 million from Sept. The market traded higher immediately following the report after losing steam and finishing down 8 cents on the day. World stocks of corn were down 2.65 MMT, yet very close to trade estimates.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:45 – UP 2
The trade took the initial USDA’s numbers as positive right after the report, but as the day went on, the bulls could not keep the market higher and beans settled down almost 9 cents. The bean carryout grew by 30 mbu to 395 mbu, though the trade was assuming a carryout number closer to 415 mbu. As expected yield was increased by 0.8 bu/A. Exports were also raised 40 million bu, but not enough to offset the higher production number, hence the jump in ending stocks. World ending stocks jumped 5.19 MMT, well above most trade estimates and mostly from S America. The forecasted rain amounts in the PNW don’t look very conducive for loading bean boats over the next 7 days!
WHEAT: As of 7:45 – MPLS Up 3, KC UP 5
The wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday after the report release. Winter wheat production was increased and domestic usage was lowered, leading to a higher carryout number than was reported in Sept. Stocks to use ratio has swelled back near 65%! On the Spring wheat balance sheet production was lowered and usage/exports were left unchanged, dropping ending stocks by 41 million bushels. World stocks of all wheat was down slightly.