October 10, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

USDA report is on Wednesday, October 12th

Export inspections to be released this morning

CORN (Unchanged)
The USDA report is set to come out on Wednesday with the trade estimating a neutral carryout number of 2.3 bln relative to the last monthly report. Early yields reported look to be good as the Eastern corn belt is starting to dry up which should bode well for harvest progress this week. Corn futures have virtually been sideways since the beginning of September as harvest starts firing up. Reminder that harvest price insurance is set during the month of October, the average to date is $3.445. Nearby resistance is shown at $3.4925 with support showing up at $3.25.

Bean futures have been relatively stable for the last three weeks as harvest continues to plug away. Yields seem to be favorable thus far with analysts estimating the USDA will raise yield slightly above 51 bpa in Wednesday’s report. Average trade guesses for carryout Wednesday show carryout up about 50 mln bushel from the last report at 415 mln bushels. Through the month of October harvest price insurance values are at $9.617. Below is a look at the precipitation outlook for the next week.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Unchanged, Kansas City Up 1)
Spring wheat futures have been the leader over the past month, charging up 38 cents over the past 4 weeks. Most of the rally seem to be sparked by production issues in Canada coupled with some modest fund buying. This may be a good spot to start making some sales as we push up against resistance on the December contract. Estimates for the USDA report Wednesday have carryout at 1.151 bln, up about 50 mln bushels from last month.