September 9, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
USDA report is on Monday, September 12th
Export sales will be released this morning
CORN (Down 3)
Corn spiked up Thursday with decent buying activity sparked by a wet, delayed harvest in parts of the South. Ethanol production fell 25k barrels per day, which was below trade estimates. Total ethanol stocks were slightly lower than expectations coming in at 20.65 mln barrels. China sold 477 MMT of state reserve corn to Malawi on Thursday. The average trade guesses for Monday’s USDA report are 173.4 bpa on corn and range from a 14.757 bln bushel crop on the low end to 15.3 bln bushels on the high end. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.18 Z16 with resistance showing up at $3.4425. Below is a look at the weekend precipitation forecast.
Beans struggled to follow corn’s strength with a stronger dollar on Thursday. China imported 7.67 MMT of soybean in August, which is nearly the same as last year at this time. The average trade guess for soybean yield ranges from 48.1 to 50.1 bpa with production ranging from 4.019 to 4.162 bln bushels. Demand still remains strong as most expect the 2015/16 carryout to end under the 200 mln bushel mark. Exports look to be strong in the month of September and October as producers look to sell cash beans at a premium to last year. Nearby support for November futures can be found at $9.37 with resistance showing up at $9.89.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 1, Kansas City Down 2)
Reports of poor conditions in France with limited exports help to boost the U.S. competitive position and keep futures from trending lower. The average trade guess for U.S. carryout in Monday’s report is expected to increase 3 mln bushels to 1.103 bln bushels. In world news Morocco is tendering for 300k U.S. wheat and 345k EU wheat. Egypt continues to face quality problems as they reject another 63tmt of Romanian wheat due to ergot. Nearby support for Minneapolis Dec futures is found at $4.8025 with resistance at $4.99. Nearby support for Kansas City Dec futures is found at $3.96 with resistance found at $4.16.