September 8, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Next USDA report is on Monday, September 12th
Ethanol numbers released this morning
CORN (Up 1)
Corn bounced Wednesday as demand remains strong and Brazil’s corn production estimates continue to drop. France continues to struggle with droughty conditions and is expecting a 7% drop in production versus last year. Harvest looks to get back going in the Delta as they are drying out and areas in the East are close to starting to cut as well. More private estimates funnel in and are estimating yield in the neighborhood of 169-175bpa. Even with the large spread in yield we are more than likely looking at over a 2.0 bln bushel carryout to start out the marketing year. Funds were buyers of an estimated 8k contracts on Wednesday. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.18 Z16 with resistance showing up at $3.4425. Below is a look at the precipitation forecast for the next week.
SOYBEANS (Up 5)
Good exports sales continue to propel beans off the low set last week and most analysts estimate the old crop carryout to tighten in the next USDA report. In yesterday’s action a 220tmt sale was made to China for 2016/2017 with an additional 264tmt reported to unknown for the 2016/2017 marketing year. The trade continues to look for a condition rating drop but we remain at 73% G/E, which is 10% higher than at this point last year. August exports out of the U.S were reported at 4.0MMT, which is 1.3MMT higher than at this point last year. Nearby support for November futures can be found at $9.37 with resistance showing up at $9.89.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 2, Kansas City Up 1)
Canadian wheat stocks were reported yesterday at 5.2mmt, which was well above the average trade guess of 4.3mmt but below last year of 7.1mmt. Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 10% next year due to prices. World stocks still remain ample with the USDA report next week likely to show a fairly neutral world and domestic supplies number. Nearby support for Minneapolis Dec futures is found at $4.8025 with resistance at $4.99. Nearby support for Kansas City Dec futures is found at $3.96 with resistance found at $4.16.