September 6, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Export inspections to be released this morning

CORN (Down 2)
Corn rounded out last week on a positive note and actually finished up 3.5 cents for the week after hitting 2014 lows on the December contract last Wednesday. Demand remains strong but the supply side of the balance sheet keeps weighing on the board. Informa released their updated production model Friday pegging yield at 174.8 to make it just over a 15.3 bln bushel crop. Crop conditions remain around 75% G/E as the trade doesn’t expect to see much loss or gain in this afternoon’s conditions report. Minimum price contracts are a viable alternative this harvest with March, May and July corn calls trading around 20,25 and 30 cents, respectively. This is a great option to get paid up front, lock in a floor and still take advantage in market appreciation. Nearby support for December futures is found at $3.18 Z16 with resistance showing up at $3.4425.

Beans pulled back for the second week in a row, dropping another 14 cents. U.S. bean demand remains strong as South American supplies are lower at this point this year versus last year. Bean conditions in this afternoon’s report are expected to be within 1% of last week’s 73% G/E rating. Informa updated their yield number to 49.5 bpa on beans, nearly a 2 bushel increase from their last estimate. Nearby support for November beans is found at $9.37 with resistance showing up at $9.66 on the 10-day moving average. Below is a look at the day chart for November beans.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 2, Kansas City Down 3)
Wheat showed a bounce later in the week after a near 40 cent sell off in both Minneapolis and Kansas City markets over the past couple weeks. Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 10% this year as most areas are near LDP levels. Spring wheat harvest should be pretty close to wrapped up by the end of this weekend in most areas. Nearby support for Minneapolis Dec futures is found at $4.8025 with resistance at $4.99. Nearby support for Kansas City Dec futures is found at $3.96 with resistance found at $4.16.