08/10/16
Morning Market Insight
Cutter Murray
Grain Marketing Specialist

Corn as of 7:45: Up 1
U.S. corn exports pegged to range from 55.5-55.8 mbu per week, almost double 5-year average. Ethanol margins: $0.24 per gallon down from 0.34 last week and $0.32 last year. Weather forecast is calling for good rainfall over the drought areas of the eastern corn belt this weekend. USDA estimates China’s 2015-16 corn stockpile at 110.62m mt, falling to 103.6m in 2016-17. China will allow commercial production of genetically modified corn and soybeans by 2020 as the world’s most-populous country seeks to boost food security.

Beans as of 7:45: Up 3
On average, another 14% of U.S. soybeans set pods between Aug. 7-Aug. 14. U.S. soybean exports may average 30-40 mbu per week over the next month. Soybean crop ratings remain high but forecasted rain later this week is needed for dry eastern Corn Belt.

Wheat as of 7:45: MW-Unchanged KW Unchanged
Expect U.S. all wheat exports over the next 4 weeks to range from 20-25 mbu vs. 18.0 last year. U.S. HRS wheat harvest to slow in eastern N Dakota & Minnesota Wed.-Thu. due to 1.00”-2.00” rain. KC September Wheat Open Interest sees a 30 year seasonal high. French consultancy Agritel forecast Soft Wheat production at 28.68 MMT, a 30% decline from the 2015 production figure.