July 14, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Make sure to have your targets working heading into this volatile weather market!

CORN (Up 10)
Corn continues to climb off its lows as the heat ridge is expected to hover over the central corn belt the next couple weeks. Although heat is in the forecast it should be noted that precipitation amounts over the next week are expected to be adequate. Export sales for last week were reported at 26.3 mln bushels, which was well above the needed amount and above trade estimates. New crop sales were reported at 27.1 mln bushels which was also a strong number. Ethanol figures were released Wednesday and showed total ethanol production up 20k barrels/day over last week. Total ethanol stocks were down just over 400k barrels as fuel demand remains strong heading into the latter part of the summer. In world news Brazil’s corn export line up is reported at 24 mln bushels, which is about 1/3rd of the lineup last year at this time. Nearby support for Sept futures is found at $3.39 with resistance at $3.80.


The bean market is taking note of the heat forecast too as we are inching closer to the critical late July, early August time frame. Export sales this morning were a bit disappointing coming in at 13.4 mln bushels when the trade was expecting 18 mln. New crop bean sales were in line with expectations at 20 mln bushels. In world news the Brazil soybean lineup Is reported at 92 mln bushels, which is around 70 mln bushels less than last year at this time. China’s import pace is lagging as of late, down 100k MT from May and 7% off from June of last year. Nearby support for August futures is found at $11.13 with resistance showing up at $11.49. Below is a look at the day chart for November beans with the 50 day moving average.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 5, Kansas City Up 4)
Weaker dollar and spill over strength from corn seems to be the main driver of wheat hanging around these levels. Stocks still remain adequate with over a 1 bln bushel carryout keeping the top side limited in the market. Egypt bought 150kMT of Black sea wheat on Tuesday with no French wheat offered at this time due to yield and quality concerns. Winter wheat harvest has been slowed this week as much of the area receives rain and is forecasted to continue over the next couple days. According to USDA winter wheat yields are expected to be records in Kansas and Oklahoma. Also noteworthy, the UDSA raised wheat feeding 100 mln bushels this week as winter wheat is competitive in price with corn.