July 12, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
USDA WASDE report out at 11AM this morning
CORN (Down 2)
Corn futures struggled Monday on adequate moisture and mild temperatures over the corn belt this past weekend. Condition ratings were raised 1% this week to 76% G/E. This is 7% better than at this time last year. The amount of corn silking was reported at 32%, which is 6% further along than last year. Export inspections were strong for yet another week coming in at 53 mln bushels versus the 45 mln expected. Average trade guesses for this morning’s report have carryout at 1.8 bln bushels for this year and 2.21 bln bushels for this coming year’s crop. Nearby support for Sept futures is found at $3.39 with resistance at $3.6375.
Beans were not able to hold gains Monday as conditions looked too good for the coming week. Condition ratings followed suit Monday afternoon and were increased 1% to 71% G/E. We are now 9% better than at this point last year. The amount of soybeans blooming is reported at 40% and is 9% ahead of last year. Export inspections were good, coming in at the high end of expectations at 13.7 mln bushels, this is slightly lower than the needed weekly amount to reach the USDA forecast. The average trade guesses for this morning’s report have bean carryout for this year at 370 mln bushels with next year estimated just shy of 300 mln bushels. Nearby support for August futures is found at $10.45 with resistance showing up at $11.01. Below is a look at the day chart for November 16 (new crop) beans…
WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 3, Kansas City Down 4)
Export’s reported Monday were weak coming in at 13.8 mln bushels as the trade was looking for closer to 20 mln bushels. We need 17 mln bushels a week to reach the USDA forecast. Wheat production is expected to increase in this morning’s report to 2.164 mln bushels, which is 87 mln bushels higher than the last estimate. Ending stocks are expected to rise for the 16/17 marketing year to 1.114 bln bushels. Spring wheat conditions dropped 2% to 70% G/E this week. South Dakota spring wheat conditions continue to drop, now off another 4% to 50% G/E. Winter wheat harvest is right in line with average pace as we are now 66% complete.