July 11, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Export inspections to be released this AM, USDA WASDE report tomorrow @11AM
CORN (Up 4)
The corn market looks to have found a short term bottom as we are now 20 cents off the low set last Wednesday. Friday’s export sales report showed a disappointing number of 14.6 mln bushels, which was nearly 10 mln off what the trade was estimating. Crop ratings tonight should show condition near unchanged from last week at 75% G/E with good precipitation and mild temperatures over the past week. CONAB estimates for the Brazil corn crop were lowered to 69MMT and we will find out if the USDA revises its number in Tuesday’s WASDE report. Argentina corn harvest is behind the 5-year average and is near 50% complete. In world news South Korea bought 197k corn on Friday. Nearby support for Sept futures is found at $3.39 with resistance at $3.6375. Below is a look at the day chart for September corn with the 100 day moving average.
SOYBEANS (Up 14)
The soybean/corn ratio was the biggest loser of the week as the ratio went from a 3.09 to 2.9 in favor of beans by Friday. Export sales released Friday were bullish beans as they reported 23.4 mln bushels of old crop and 21.6 mln bushels of new crop. In world news Chinese crush margins have taken a big hit as they dropped $.60 for the week. The Brazilian bean line up is nearly 50% of what it was a year ago as the Argentina boat line up is up year on year. Crop conditions expected in this evening’s report are estimated to be neutral as conditions have not seemed to change much over the past week. Nearby support for August futures is found at $10.45 with resistance showing up at $11.01.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Up 3, Kansas City Up 2)
Wheat export sales were strong at 30.3 mln bushels, which was about 10 mln more than the average trade guess. We need 12.3 mln bushels a week to reach the USDA forecast. In world news France dropped their soft wheat ratings from 65% to 59% this week. The EU commission cut their wheat forecast slightly but year on year the totals are similar to last year at 144.6 MMT. LDP’s are coming into play in parts of Kansas and are inching closer as you work North. Spring wheat conditions are expected to drop slightly this evening’s report as Winter wheat harvest should show good gains.