July 8, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Corn: Up 2-5
Corn surged early yesterday but struggled to hang on to those gains as they tried hold their head above water vs the another bean collapse. In the end the market only managed a ¼ up close. We did see some positive numbers in the overnight getting some support from some corrective trading and a weaker dollar. The market is still trying to put some weather premium in as some forecast predict a hot/dry end of July. CONAB updated Brazil corn production number yesterday and it came in at 69.1 MMT, down from 76.2 MMT in their June report and well below the most recent USDA estimate of 77.5 MMT (85 MMT production on 2014).
Soybeans: Up 5-8
Another hard day anything to do with the Soy complex. Beans broke through some levels of support and went into a free fall with weaker crude and a firmer dollar didn't help at all. We did see some reprieve in the overnight session as we had some corrective trading and outside markets helped influence that. Favorable rains fell in the central and northern plains with more in the 7-10-day forecast. USDA announced 120K Mt’s sold to China for 16-17 crop year. CONAB lowered their Brazil soybean estimate to 95.6 MMT vs. expectations of a 1.3 MMT increase to 96.9.
Wheat: Up 2-5
A little spark of life early in yesterday’s session but it didn’t take to long for wheat to follow corn down. With the pressure coming from SB and lack of news didn’t help either. We did see a small pop on the overnight with a little help from the corn market and a weaker dollar. France AgriMer rated its wheat crop at 59% good to excellent as of July 4, as the conditions continue to decline. That is down 6 points from last week and the lowest rating in the past five years for this time of year.