June 10, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

USDA WASDE report to be released this morning @11AM

CORN (Up 2)
Thursday began with an excellent export sales number reported at 61.4 mln bushels, which was nearly 20 mln bushels over the average trade guess! The market was quick to shrug off the bullish figures as money flow prior to the report this morning kept prices down. Average trade guesses for this morning’s USDA report have 15/16 carryout at 1.772 bln bushels and 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.125 bln bushels. USDA also reported a new sale of 116tmt of corn to unknown for this marketing year. CONAB estimates Brazil’s crop at 76.2mmt which is a slightly lower number than the trade was looking for. Nearby resistance for July corn is at $4.39 with support showing up on the 10 day moving average of $4.205. Below is a look at the day chart for July corn….

Outside markets seemed to keep a lid on nearby soybean futures with a stronger dollar and lower oil on Thursday. It is important to note that beans are up 93 cents over the last two weeks! Export sales reported Thursday were good coming in at 27.9 mln bushels, this was about 11 mln bushels higher than the average trade guess. Average trade guesses for this morning’s USDA report estimate 15/16 carryout at 385 mln bushels with 16/17 carryout pegged at 289 mln bushels. The average trade guess range is very wide for 16/17 carryout so be prepared for volatility post-report release. Remember, the best way to capture market movement is to have your targets working! Nearby support for July futures is located at $11.29 with resistance found at $11.89.

WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 2, Kansas City Down 3)
Wheat keeps on creeping up slowly as nearby Minneapolis futures are showing a 25 cent gain over the past two weeks while nearby Kansas City futures are up 24 cents. Wheat export sales were reported at 8.2 mln bushels which was a slightly friendly number on Thursday. Average trade guesses for carryout are 981 mln bushels for the 15/16 marketing year and 1.045 bln bushels for the 16/17 marketing year. World wheat stocks remain large as the trade is expecting a neutral world wheat stocks number of 257.8 mmt. Harvest reports out of the South show good yields and TW with what looks to be low protein.