June 1, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Ethanol numbers out today.
Corn: 3 lower
Corn settled lower yesterday on account of decent long term weather predictions, and dismal export inspections. Export inspections were at 31 million bushels, with a reported sale of 4 million bushels to Taiwan. We are 11% behind on inspections, compared to this time last year, as we head into the final quarter of the marketing year. We have a lot of ground to make up as the USDA predicted a 4% drop in total inspections for the year. Corn is at 94% planted with 78% emerged. Planted numbers equal that of last year, but emergence is down. The crop rating is 72% good to excellent. Corn is off to a good start and a 14-billion-bushel crop, or more, is still possible this fall. It is going to take a weather problem to push this market higher. Support at $4 futures for both the nearby and new crop months.
Soybean: 3 – 5 lower
Soybeans just can’t seem to punch through that top line around 10.87 July futures as that continues range bound. November soybeans are having a hard time reaching May highs at $10.75. November continues its tight trading space as the trading masses debate possible corn acres switching to soybeans. Yesterday’s sell off was triggered by the export inspection number of 6.7 million bushels. The numbers were ok, but what caught the eye of the traders was that none of the shipments were to China. Total inspections to date are 3% behind USDA projections as we head into the final quarter of the marketing year. Soybeans are 73% planted vs the 68% last year and the 66% average. Emergence is estimated to be around 45% with is in line with last year and 5 points better than the five-year average. The bull needs to be fed! Support for July soybeans is holding at $10.75 futures, with $10.50 futures holding support in November.
Wheat: 2 higher
US winter wheat improved 1 point this week to 63% good to excellent with 84% of the crop headed out. US Spring wheat is 88% emerged. This is in line with last year and about 22% ahead of the 5 yr average. Export inspections were at 18.2 million bushels. This was in line with trade guesses, but to date we are 4% behind USDA predictions as the wheat marketing year comes to a close. Drier forecasts, promoting early harvest in the month of June, are also putting pressure on the wheat complex.