May 19, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Export sales to be released this morning.
CORN (Down 4)
Corn gained on beans Wednesday as the trade continues to try and decide how many acres are shifting with planting delays in the Eastern corn belt. Dryness in Argentina is still present as the 2nd crop will more than likely have significant losses. Export sales estimates for this morning’s report are 35-51 mln bushels of old crop corn and 4-12 mln bushels of new crop. Ethanol numbers showed output decreased by 14k barrels per day, this was 10k barrels per day behind last year at this time. Ethanol stocks declined 149k with blender demand showing an uptick heading into the summer season. Nearby support for July futures is found on the 10 day moving average of $3.87 with resistance at $4.07. Below is a look at the Bean/Corn ratio, notice the dramatic gain beans have made on corn over the past month but we have now pulled back from our highs set a week ago.
SOYBEANS (Down 10)
Beans failed to test old highs on Wednesday, trading a few cents away in the Tuesday –Wednesday overnight before selling off. Conditions remain optimal for planting as reports of record planting pace continue to come in with what looks to be a wet early part of next week. Estimates for this morning’s sales report show old crop in the 11-18 mln bushel range with 2-9 mln bushels of expected new crop sales. Funds continue to buy what looks like between 5-10k contracts each trading session this week making this Friday’s COT report that much more interesting. Nearby support for July futures is found at $10.55 with resistance found at $10.915.
WHEAT (Minneapolis Down 3, Kansas City Down 5)
Wheat exports are expected to be smaller tomorrow with estimates in the 5 mln bushels area for old crop and 10 mln bushels for new crop. Conditions look good in Ukraine as estimates were increased 21% to 21.5 MMT. Wheat seems to be supported in the short term with rains over much of the Southern areas and concerns over potential quality issues. Minneapolis July futures are showing support at$5.2525 with resistance at $5.4325. Nearby support for July Kansas City futures show up at $4.4125 with resistance at $4.6175.