May 17, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
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CORN (Down 1)
A heavy news day Monday as exports, planting progress and informa numbers were all released throughout the day. Exports were reported at 43.7 mln bushels, which was within trade expectations. The two largest buyers were Mexico with 10.7 mln bushels and Japan with 13.5 mln bushels. Planting progress was reported at 75% complete, which is 7 points behind last year but still ahead of the 5-year average of 70% complete at this time. The cold snap over the weekend didn’t seem to be much of a threat for the trade on Monday with the USDA saying we are 43% emerged, which is 9 points better than the average. For what it’s worth informa’s corn acreage number is fairly in line with the USDA at 93.37 mln acres. Nearby support for July futures is found on the 10 day moving average of $3.82 with resistance at $3.95.
SOYBEANS (Up 3)
Bean exports for last week were in line with trade expectations at 7.2 mln bushels. The question still remains if any summer export demand will continue to show up with Argentina’s potential production issues this past month. Informa’s acreage number was raised, now showing planted acres just over 83 mln acres. The NOPA crush report was virtually a non-event Monday as the 147.6 mln bushels grind last month was in line with expectations. Soybean planting continues to clip along, now at 36 % planted which is up 13 points from last week. We are just ahead of the 5-year average of 32% planted at this time and slightly behind the 41% complete number last year at this time. Nearby support for July beans is found at the 10 day moving average of $10.535 with resistance showing up at $10.725. Below is a look at the day chart for new crop, November beans…
WHEAT (Minneapolis up 1, Kansas City up 2)
Winter wheat conditions continue to look solid, reported at 62% Good/Excellent in Monday afternoon’s report. Spring wheat planted is at 89% with emergence at 60%. Emergence at this point is tracking pretty closely with last year. Export inspections were reported at 13.5 mln bushels, which was on the low side of trade expectations. Informa decreased their projected spring wheat acres by 737k acres for a total of 11.8 mln. This is still around 400k more acres than the USDA forecast. Texas wheat harvest is on the cusp of starting as SW Oklahoma looks to get started in a couple weeks.