March 23, 2016
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Weekly ethanol production numbers to be released this morning. Don’t forget to have your targets working for the Planting intentions report next Thursday, March 31st!

CORN- Down 2
Corn seems to be fairly stagnant as we hang around insurance prices for the week. Funds remain short close to 230k contract which have some believing we will see a short-term rally like we have seen in beans. Soon the trade will be primarily focused on next week as we await the prospective planting numbers. Will we see the 92 mln acres many are thinking or will the number be smaller with beans gaining on corn since the 1st of the year? Technically support for May futures can be found at the gap created early last week at $3.655 with resistance found at 3.72 K16. December futures support can be found at $3.835 with resistance at $3.90. Below is a look at the bean: corn ratio, notice the ground beans have made up since mid-September 2015.

Most of the rally seems to be attributed to fund buying as overall fundamentals don’t seem to have changed. Brazil harvest is now seen at 60-65% complete as yields reported seem to be in line with expectations. May beans did trade through their 200 day moving average of $9.045 after trading up to it the last few trading sessions. We are now a 31 cent premium to February insurance prices which is triggering some initial new crop sales. Make sure to have your targets working during this nice spring time rally, now 48 cents off the low. Technically, May futures are showing resistance at $9.175 with support found at $8.975 on the 10 day moving average.

WHEAT- Minneapolis Down 1, Kansas City Down 2
We continue to see fund buying this week as the market tries to digest actual damage caused from sub-freezing temperatures over the weekend. The biggest headwinds for wheat continues to be stocks as we are a near 50% stocks to use ratio as of USDA’s March WASDE report. Futures seem to be trying to turn momentum positive and test the highs that we set last week. The level is currently about 10 cents away in both Kansas City and Minneapolis markets for May futures. Nearby support for Minneapolis futures is found at $5.0475 with resistance at $5.235. Nearby support for Kansas City futures can be found at $4.655 with resistance found at $$4.905.