March 1, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
We are now bidding off May futures on nearby bids for all commodities.
Corn: Up 1
Exports came in at 29 mbu, right in the trade estimate of 26-31 mbu. Still need 41.1 mbu a week to reach USDA’s estimate. Year-to-date US corn exports are down 21% vs last year. Brazil’s safrinha crop is 74% planted, up from 51% last week and 17 points ahead of the 2015 pace. The final base crop insurance price average of December 2016 is $3.86, down from $4.15 last year.
Soybeans: Up 5
Brazil’s harvest is at 33%, up from 24% last week and 5 points behind last year and the 5-year average. The EIA estimates 108 mln gallons of biodiesel was produced in December, down 12% from a year ago; 58% of the production was sourced with soy oil. Exports were 38.5 mbu on the lower end of the trading range of 37-59 mbu. Still need 10.6 mbu a week to reach USDA’s estimate. The final base crop insurance price average for November 2016 futures is $8.85, down from $9.73 last year.
Wheat: MW Up 1, KC down 2
Export inspections were in line with the trade estimates of 10-15 mbu at 13.7 mbu, still need 17.8 mbu to reach USDA’s estimate, this is 13% behind last year. Since Jan 1, India wheat area is 3rd driest and 3rd warmest in last 15 years. Indian Farm Ministry still maintaining a 93.8 mln ton crop, with the trade expecting 10 mln tons less.