November 29, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager
Let’s start with an assumption. Let us assume that yesterday marked a change in direction for the time being. Let’s assume that for the next couple of weeks the EU problems will disappear and that as a result the USA dollar trades lower. One could make the argument that the technical indicators are oversold so perhaps this is a likely scenario. If the market starts to surge we then have a decision to make. There will be one school of thought that will tell you that at almost exactly this same point last year we put in the low and started the sustained rally. They will at the very least imply that we will see history repeat itself in the coming months. The other group will tell you that in all likelihood what we are experiencing is a rally in a bear market. This morning I have decided to not talk about any fundamental news. The fact is you all know what it is and there is nothing new out there to talk about. Instead I am going to run two charts for each commodity. The first chart will be the monthly continuation chart with my three technical indicators applied to it. That should give you a sense of whether the monthly chart is showing that we are in a bull or bear market. Secondly, for those of you that look at the charts and decide that you think we are having a rally in a bear market I am going to run a March futures chart for each of the commodities that shows where the Fibonacci driven resistance points are so that you can enter sell orders against them if you so desire.
SOYBEANS: 3 higher
WHEAT: 2 higher
The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.