January 29, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
Export sales will be released this AM
CORN- Up 1
Export sales are to be released this morning with the trade looking for 31-39mln bushels reported for the week. We need 25.7 mln bushels a week to reach the USDA forecast even with the USDA lowering the expected exports in their last three reports. Outside markets kept corn up at the beginning of yesterday’s session but bearish bean news ended up pulling prices down. Technically, we did have a poor close as we closed 2 cents below the 50 day moving average of 3.67 H16. Nearby resistance for March futures remains at the 100 day moving average of $3.79 with support found at $3.6525. Below is a look at the precipitation forecast over the next week.
SOYBEANS- Up 2
Soybeans had a rough Thursday with China cancelling 13 mln bushels of beans for this marketing year at the beginning of the trading session. We bounced off the 100 day moving average of $8.81 early in the day and closed 13 cents lower than that mark. March soybean futures are now trading at the lowest levels seen since January 11th. Export sales estimates for this morning’s report are estimated to be between 18-29 mln bushels. We need 6.7 mln bushels a week for the rest of the marketing year to reach the USDA forecast. South America weather remains mixed with parts of Brazil being both too wet and too dry with what looks to be a “good” crop on the way.
WHEAT- Minneapolis Unchanged, Kansas City Unchanged
Estimates for this morning’s export sales report are expected to be between 9-15 mln bushels. We need 10.9 mln bushels a week to reach the current USDA forecast. The USDA’s next chance to revise numbers will be the WASDE report coming up on February 9th. Weather forecast indicate that the Central plains may receive some snowfall early next week, which would help out the HRW crop. Minneapolis closed right at its 20 day moving average of $4.95 MWH16. Nearby support for Kansas City March futures is found at $4.57 with resistance at the 20 day moving average of $4.6875.