January 26, 2016
Grain Marketing Specialist
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CORN- Down 1
Corn traded on both sides of unchanged on Monday as the corn market showed an in line export number of 23 mln bushels. Year on year this puts us down about 120 mln bushels shipped. Ethanol margins made a bounce back last week after falling for the past month. Exports will need to pick up here over the next couple months to sustain any sort of long term rally heading into spring. The USDA believes that corn acreage will be up next year, keeping the supply ample. The carryout for this marketing year is pegged at 1.80 bln bushels. Nearby resistance for March futures remains at the 100 day moving average of $3.79 with support found at $3.6525. Below is a day chart of December 16 corn with the 100 day moving average.
SOYBEANS- Down 4
Bean exports were reported at 44 mln bushels on Monday, which was down 7 mln bushels from last week. Funds were estimated buyers of 4000 contracts yesterday, making them about 77,000 contracts short. The forecast still looks to be relatively normal in Brazil and Argentina as we continue in their critical pod fill stage. Soybean carryout for this marketing year is estimated around 460 mln bushels. Exports year to date are down 12% versus last year. Nearby support for March beans is found at $8.705 with resistance located on the 100 day moving average of $8.81.
WHEAT- Minneapolis Unchanged, Kansas City Unchanged
Funds bought an estimated 4,000 contracts on Monday as they were expected to be about 110,000 contracts short to begin the week. Export inspections were reported at 7 mln bushels. This was 4 mln bushels lower than the average trade estimate. Domestic winter wheat areas look to be in favorable condition with good mix of moisture and mild temperature over the next week. In world news rumors of Russia looking to raise export taxes continue to circulate. The main reason for the increased tax would be to curb domestic inflation.