January 13, 2015
Producer Marketing Manager
CORN: As of 7:35 – Up 1
Corn traded mostly in negative territory prior to the report yesterday, then traded well into positive territory for the balance of the trading session, despite growing the carryout for 15/16. USDA lowered production by 53 million bushels bu dropping yield by 0.9 bu/A. Combine that with an INCREASE in imports by 10 million bushels and you have 43 million less bushels on the supply side of the balance sheet compared to a month ago. On the demand side of the balance sheet, exports were cut (for the third month in a row) by 50 million bu and the residual category was reduced by 10 million bushels. This gives us a 1.802 billion bushel carryout, 17 million bushels larger than last month’s figure.
SOYBEANS: As of 7:35 – Up 2
Bullish from the get-go after the report release as World stocks were lowered as was US ending stocks. USDA lowered bean production by 51 million bushels. Demand was also lowered as exports were cut by 25 million bushels and residual was dropped by 2. In the end, carryout was dropped from 465 last month to 440 million bushels today…….however this is more than double last year’s ending stock number. December 1 stocks were 187 million bushels larger than a year ago.
WHEAT: As of 7:35 – Mpls Down 4, KC Down 5
Wheat was the head scratcher yesterday. At first glimpse the wheat balance sheet looked to get more plentiful – HRW had a stocks to use ratio of 60.4%. However the market rallied and was the market leader in the grain/oilseeds all session. Most of the bullish exuberance was related to the Winter Wheat Seeding report that was lower than trade expectations for planted acres. (2.8 million acres less than last year).