Morning Market Insight
11/04/15
Cutter Murray
Grain Marketing Specialist

Corn/Milo as of 7:45- Down 1
Funds were buyers of 10,000 contracts yesterday. Informa released their pre report estimates yesterday raising their yields estimate to 170.1 bpa (vs USDA at 168) with total production at 13.72 bbu (vs USDA current 13.56 bbu).Brazil had record corn exports in October of 5.55mmt. U.S. corn exports during the remainder of November are forecast at 18-19 mbu per week, which down from 34+ over the same period last year. Much of Argentina and Brazil were drier than normal over the last 30 days, but most of the same areas were seasonably-wet over the last two weeks. Ethanol margins of $0.27 per gallon up vs. $0.21 last week but below $0.68 last year.


Soybeans as of 7:45- Up 4
Informa raised yield to 47.9bpa (vs USDA 47.2). USDA attache to Brazil estimates Brazil production @ 98.5mmt. Argentina Ag Minister says farmer has sold 74% of 14/15 production. U.S. soybean exports went from an avg. of 77 mbu per week from mid to late-October last year to 96 per week through the end of November. Look for 90+ through the remainder of November this year. Delayed start to soybean planting in Brazil may have an effect on yields.


Wheat as of 7:45-MW- Down 3 KC Down 3

Russia Ag Minister says seeding of winter grains is 92% complete but 25% planted in poor dry drought conditions. Australia was dry cutting production estimates now too wet. Ukraine Ag Minister and traders agree to export no more than 16.5 MMT of wheat in 15/16 as drought could reduce the 2016 crop output 5 to 5½ MMT. U.S. all wheat exports averaged 11 mbu per week in November 2014; likely to be near that this year.