October 2, 2015
Matt Erickson
Grain Marketing Specialist

Crop/Harvest progress report on Monday afternoon @3pm

CORN- Down 2
Since the report release on Wednesday the market has tried to test the recent high of $3.95, coming up just short at $3.945. A few more private estimates are being released in the marketplace on yield ranging from 165.9 bpa to 167bpa. Traders are estimating that next Monday’s crop progress report will show nationwide harvest progress around 25 % complete due to the good harvest weather this week. At this point last year we saw corn at 75% mature with the 5 year average running at 84%. Food for thought, nearby December futures on October 3rd last year closed at $3.2325, today we are at $3.865. Nearby support for December corn can be found at $3.75 with resistance found at $3.95.

According to research U.S. exports are lagging 30% compared to last year on soybean shipments. Last year soybean harvest at this point was seen at 19% complete versus the five year average at 32% complete. Large speculative funds are carrying an estimated short position of 52k contracts. Since the report release on Wednesday we have lost 19 cents on November futures. Technically, November futures are pushing up against the 10 and 20 day moving averages at $8.76 and $8.77, respectively. Nearby November futures seem to be channeling sideways between $9.02 and $8.5325 as noted in the chart below…

WHEAT- Minneapolis Down 2, Kansas City Down 3
News of areas of the Black Sea and Australia being dry continue to circulate and add a weather premium to this market. Large speculative funds are thought to be short 66k contracts. In export news it was noted that this past week’s sales of 2.8 mln bushels are the lowest reported for this time of year since 1986. Beneficial rain is expected this weekend into early next week over HRW production areas. Nearby support for Minneapolis futures can be found at $5.135 with resistance found at $5.2975 on the December contract. Nearby support for Kansas City futures can be found at $4.895 with nearby resistance at $5.1525 on the December contract.