July 10, 2015
Grain Marketing Specialist
USDA WASDE report to be released this morning @11AM, make sure to have your targets working!
CORN- Up 3
Corn continues its upward surge on Thursday as funds added 11,000 contracts to their long position. Export sales were solid at 21.1 mln bushels reported in yesterday’s trading session. Average trade estimates for this year’s carryout are at 1.81 bln bushels with estimates for next year at 1.51 bln bushels. The trade is waiting to see if we see a yield reduction in today’s report, although the July WASDE is typically not a huge adjustment. The average trade estimate for yield heading into the report is at 165.8 bpa. CONAB continues to increase their production estimate for Brazil, now at 81.8mmt. Nearby resistance for September corn is at $4.33 with resistance on the December contract found at $4.435. Below is a day chart for September corn..
SOYBEANS- Up 8
Beans remain volatile as the trade is still trying to figure out how many beans are getting planted in Missouri and Kansas. Average trade estimates for carryout this year are 292 mln with next year being at 378 mln bushels. Yield estimates for today’s report look for 44-45.5 bpa. Bean exports reported on Thursday were in line with trade expectations at 1.5 mln bushels. Funds were an estimated buyer of 15,000 contracts on Thursday prior to the report release this morning. CONAB increased their Brazil estimate to 96.2 mmt, up from 96 mmt reported previously. Nearby resistance for Aug beans looks to be found at 10.5475 and at $10.40 on the Nov 15 contract.
WHEAT- Minneapolis Up 5, Kansas City Up 6
Wheat seems to have found some consolidation on the board as we wait and see how production and quality look in the South. Wheat exports reported Thursday were on the lower end of trade expectations at 12.7 mln bushels. Average carryout is estimated to be at 753 mln bushels for this year and 855 mln bushels for next year. World ending stocks are estimated to be 200.34 mmt in this morning’s report along with next year’s stocks to be 200.41 mmt, slightly less than the June WASDE number.