November 9, 2011
By: Craig Haugaard, Grain Origination Manager

CORN: 1 lower

Well, we have out USDA report and I would bet there is a pretty good chance that we won’t be trading it by the end of today’s session. First, let’s look at today’s corn numbers.  The national average yield came in at 146.7 bu/acre, down from the 148.1 bu/acre projected in the October report as well as being below the average trade estimate.  This took the annual production number to 12.31 billion bushels, also lower than the 12.433 of the October report.  On the demand side of the equation this morning’s report made just one change, dropping the feed demand by 100 million bushels.  This had an end result of giving us an 843 carry-out.  In the all important China the USDA raised their projected production by 2.5 MMT and increased imports by 1MMT as well.  Turning to South America, corn production in Argentina is projected to be up 1.5 MMT.  The trade was looking for a smaller crop in this morning’s report so I don’t know if this will have a great deal of impact other than to generate speculation that the final January numbers could be smaller still.  I suspect we will also see folks make the argument that the USDA is still under-estimating the size of the ethanol demand.  As far as today goes I suspect none of this might matter as the European bozos are in the news again with their ongoing financial woes and thus the dollar is up sharply as I write this while crude oil is over a dollar lower.   

SOYBEANS: 8 lower

The key to this market will probably be where the dollar goes today as well.  Of course with the USDA report out this morning we would be remiss if we didn’t at least look at the numbers.  Frankly, they are pretty ho hum.  National average yield is projected to be 41.3 bu/acre, down slightly from the 41.5 bu/acre projected in October.  Total production pegged at 3.046 billion bushels, also down slightly from the 3.06 projected in the October report and in line with the average trade guess of 3.048.  On the demand side of things, exports had a hatchet taken to them as they were reduced by 50 million bushels.  The net result is a projected carry-out of 195.  Up a whooping 35 million from the October report as well as being larger than the average trade guess of 183.

WHEAT: 8 lower

We got the resurveyed numbers for the all wheat yield today which pegged the national average yield at 43.7 bu/acre, down slightly from the most recent number of 43.9.  The HRS wheat production comes in at a projected398, down from 405 in October.

The information contained above was taken from sources which Wheat Growers believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Wheat Growers as to accuracy or completeness and is made available for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.