May 13, 2015
Grain Marketing Specialist
Weekly ethanol production numbers to be released this morning
Tuesday’s trade was all about the USDA report, which showed a national average yield for next year at 166.8 bpa, the second largest yield on record. Carryout for the current marketing year was raised slightly to 1.851 bln bushels while the 2015-16 carryout was also raised slightly to 1.746 bln bushels. Ample moisture over the last week has regenerated most of the western corn belts soil profile while most of the eastern corn belt is sitting in good shape moisture wise. Nearby support for July corn looks to be found at $3.5575 with nearby resistance found at $3.6950.
SOYBEANS- Up 5
Soybean’s were the biggest mover post-report as this marketing year’s carryout was trimmed 20 mln bushels to 350 mln bushels. The biggest surprise of the report was the dramatic increase in the 2015-16 carryout, which the USDA increased 70 mln bushels to a total of a 500 mln bushel carryout. The national yield being used currently by the USDA is 46 bpa. Below is a look at the day chart for November 15 soybean futures with yesterday’s price action.
WHEAT- Minneapolis Up 3, Kansas City Up 2
Wheat ending stocks were raised slightly in the USDA report to 709 mln bushels while the 2015-16 ending stocks were also raised to just shy of 800 mln bushels. World wheat stocks came in high once again as we continue to work in a high-supply environment. One bright spot in yesterday’s report was the USDA increasing wheat export estimates by 65 mln bushels for next year, may be more of a play on the dollar than actual wheat fundamentals. Nearby support for Minneapolis July futures can be found at $5.215 with resistance at $5.4650. Support for Kansas City July futures can be found at $4.855 with resistance at $5.1875.